SimpleFunctions

Evercore · KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01

Evercore is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 15 inside KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01.

Price history

18¢ current

+15¢
0¢10¢20¢
Jun 3, 2026Jun 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Evercore serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Evercore

Rank

#7 of 15

Leader

Stifel Financial 53¢

Range

4¢-53¢

Family volume

$3

Identifier

KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-EVRX

Jun 7, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

18¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 7, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

19¢

Spread

Reported volume

$81

Family rank

#7 of 15

15 outcomes · KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Family volume

$3

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 19¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
100¢631
10¢250
AskSize
19¢292
89¢1.5K
90¢46
99¢63

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Evercore serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Identifier

KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-EVRX

SF Signal
SF Index
28.70
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

574.1%

IY (No)

7.1%

Adj IY

29%

CRI

9

Overround

2.1%

LAS

0.90

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

574.1%
7.1%
Adj IY
29%
9
Overround
2.1%
LAS
0.90

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.