SimpleFunctions

Qatalyst Partners · KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01

Qatalyst Partners is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 17¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 15 inside KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01.

Price history

22¢ current

+10¢
10¢20¢
Jun 27, 2026Jul 16, 2026

Contract brief

If Qatalyst Partners serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Qatalyst Partners

Rank

#7 of 15

Leader

Stifel Financial 46¢

Range

6¢-46¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-QATAX

Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

22¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

17¢

Ask

24¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#7 of 15

15 outcomes · KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

17 / 24¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
17¢10
16¢500
AskSize
24¢500
30¢1
97¢5.0K
98¢49
99¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Qatalyst Partners serves as a lead underwriter for OpenAI's initial public offering in the United States before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2028

Identifier

KXOPENAIBANKPUBLIC-28JAN01-QATAX

SF Signal
SF Index
169.15
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

338.3%

IY (No)

14.2%

Adj IY

169%

CRI

5

Overround

1.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

high

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

338.3%
14.2%
Adj IY
169%
5
Overround
1.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.