Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will exactly 3 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. The Yes side offers an extreme 955% implied yield on a 19¢ contract with 201 days to expiry, suggesting either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether exactly 3 (rather than 2, 4, or more) House Republicans will lose primaries.
Analysis
The Yes side offers an extreme 955% implied yield on a 19¢ contract with 201 days to expiry, suggesting either significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about whether exactly 3 (rather than 2, 4, or more) House Republicans will lose primaries. The 7-day price surge from 8¢ to 16¢ combined with 791% realized volatility and a 2.19 vol ratio indicates recent information arrival has dramatically shifted sentiment, though the $13.3k open interest and thin $403.9 daily volume raise concerns about liquidity for position sizing. The cliff risk index of 5 suggests the market may experience sharp moves as we approach November 2026, particularly if primary season develops clear patterns around incumbent challenges.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-3 yes 100