Will exactly 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will exactly 6 House Republican members lose their primary in 2026?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome (exactly 6 House Republican primary losses) at just 9¢, implying only a 9% probability, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a massive 1,840% implied yield for Yes positions despite zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely precise outcome (exactly 6 House Republican primary losses) at just 9¢, implying only a 9% probability, yet the asymmetric payoff structure creates a massive 1,840% implied yield for Yes positions despite zero 24-hour volume. The $8,897 open interest and 3¢ spread suggest thin liquidity, making the extreme yield potentially misleading—the market may simply lack sufficient capital to tighten pricing around such a narrow resolution criterion. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this contract carries execution risk typical of binary events with specific numerical thresholds, and traders should be cautious that the headline yield doesn't reflect realistic entry/exit conditions.
Resolution rules
If the number of Republican House members that lose their primary in 2026 before Nov 3, 2026 is exactly 6, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (2)
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEPRIMARYHOUSER-26NOV03-6 yes 100