Will Gretchen Whitmer be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Gretchen Whitmer be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market prices Whitmer's VP nomination odds at just 9%, offering a striking 394% implied yield for Yes bettors despite nearly three years until resolution.
Analysis
This market prices Whitmer's VP nomination odds at just 9%, offering a striking 394% implied yield for Yes bettors despite nearly three years until resolution. The extremely asymmetric yields (394% vs. 3.9%) and modest $74k open interest suggest limited conviction among traders, while the thin $2.2k daily volume indicates low liquidity that could amplify price swings if sentiment shifts. The 10 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as the outcome hinges on unpredictable political dynamics including the 2028 Democratic nominee's VP selection process.
Resolution rules
If Gretchen Whitmer accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-GW yes 100