Will Wes Moore be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Wes Moore be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 936% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 1.6% on the No side, reflecting the massive long-shot odds priced at 5 cents.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 936% annualized yield on the Yes side versus just 1.6% on the No side, reflecting the massive long-shot odds priced at 5 cents. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $28,198 open interest and a tight 1-cent spread suggests illiquid positioning rather than active trading, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With 936 days to expiration and a moderate 24 cliff risk index, there's substantial time for Moore's political trajectory to shift, but the current pricing implies near-zero market conviction in his VP viability.
Resolution rules
If Wes Moore accepts the nomination for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPRESNOMD-28-WM yes 100