Will Hillary Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will Hillary Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 942% implied yield on the Yes side versus 21% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of charges relative to the risk-reward structure.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 942% implied yield on the Yes side versus 21% on the No side, suggesting the 13¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of charges relative to the risk-reward structure. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $11,701.68 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite the compelling odds, making this a potentially mispriced but difficult-to-trade opportunity. With 259 days to resolution and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 7, the market appears to be pricing in a low base rate of federal criminal charges, though the extreme Yes-side yield warrants scrutiny of whether this reflects genuine low probability or simply thin liquidity suppressing the price.
Resolution rules
If Hillary Clinton has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-HCLI yes 100