Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 32% probability of charges against Ilhan Omar by year-end 2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the Yes side (381%) combined with massive realized volatility (628%) and a vol ratio of 3.46 suggests significant uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than conviction in either direction.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 32% probability of charges against Ilhan Omar by year-end 2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the Yes side (381%) combined with massive realized volatility (628%) and a vol ratio of 3.46 suggests significant uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than conviction in either direction. With only $168.87 in 24-hour volume against $17,915 open interest, liquidity is thin, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. The recent price drift from 30¢ to 28¢ over seven days and the 3.1 info arrivals per hour indicate active speculation, but the low volume relative to open interest raises questions about whether this market can efficiently discover true probability or if it's driven by a small number of positions.
Resolution rules
If Ilhan Omar has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-IOMA yes 100