Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026
Leader sits at 46% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Troy Jackson
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Shenna Bellows
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$124K
liquid
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
24 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be confirmed that
Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Troy Jackson
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-TJAC
Will it be confirmed that Graham Platner is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Graham Platner
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-GPLA
Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Shenna Bellows
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-SBEL
Will it be confirmed that Jared Golden is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Jared Golden
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-JGOL
Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Nirav Shah
KXMEDNOMJUL-26AUG01-NSHA
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Nirav Shah will be formally confirmed as Maine's Democratic Senate nominee by July 31, 2026. Shah currently ranks second among Democratic candidates in prediction markets at 17%, trailing Troy Jackson at 57%. The probability is shaped by several dynamics: Jackson's current lead reflects his established political profile and recent polling performance, while Shah's position reflects his competitive viability as an alternative candidate. The Maine Democratic primary vote itself, scheduled for June 23, 2026, has already occurred as of this date, meaning the nominee may already be determined but formal confirmation could still be pending. Key factors affecting this probability include the primary vote results, any challenges or disputes to the nomination process, and the timeline for official party certification by the stated July 31 deadline.
- ›Maine's Democratic primary occurred on June 23, 2026; primary results would directly determine nominee viability
- ›Troy Jackson currently leads prediction markets at 57% versus Shah's 17%, indicating market consensus favors Jackson among remaining candidates
- ›Trading volume on Shah's contract ($6,905 in 24-hour volume) is lower than Jackson's ($10,602), suggesting less market certainty or engagement
- ›The formal nomination confirmation process and its timeline relative to July 31, 2026 will determine if the condition is satisfied
- ›Any primary results showing Shah outperforming market expectations or Jackson underperforming would shift probability substantially
What moved the line
- Jul 7Troy Jackson↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Nirav Shah↑3pp12→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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