Will Jacob Frey be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Jacob Frey be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or significant disagreement with broader assessments of criminal charging risk for Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1424% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or significant disagreement with broader assessments of criminal charging risk for Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey. The $0 24-hour volume combined with just $3,510 open interest indicates minimal liquidity, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to sharp moves if any news emerges regarding federal investigations. With 259 days to expiration and a 10 Cliff Risk Index score, this contract carries substantial tail risk and should be approached cautiously given the thin market depth.
Resolution rules
If Jacob Frey has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JFRE yes 100