Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Jared Goff attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. This market exhibits extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 372.9% implied yield versus just 3.6% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or heavy skepticism about both the wedding occurring and Goff's attendance.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering a 372.9% implied yield versus just 3.6% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or heavy skepticism about both the wedding occurring and Goff's attendance. The 9¢ bid-ask spread represents 50% of the current price, indicating illiquidity concerns despite $1,413.52 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. With nearly three years until expiry and a modest cliff risk index of 10, the market has time for information discovery, though the speculative nature of the premise (a celebrity wedding that hasn't been announced) makes this primarily a sentiment play rather than a fundamentals-based contract.
Also on polymarket at 48¢(Δ -37¢)
Resolution rules
If Jared Goff attended Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-JAR yes 100