Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2028. The market is pricing in a 78% probability that Sabrina Carpenter will attend the wedding, but the asymmetric implied yields (13% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 78% probability that Sabrina Carpenter will attend the wedding, but the asymmetric implied yields (13% for Yes vs. 105% for No) suggest traders view the No outcome as significantly underpriced relative to risk. With only $61.96 in 24-hour volume against $2,120.19 open interest, liquidity is thin for a market with nearly three years until expiration, and the 149% realized volatility combined with a 3.94 vol ratio indicates substantial price swings despite the flat 7-day movement. The 0.5/h information arrival rate and neutral regime suggest this market is largely speculative given the absence of concrete wedding plans or announcements.
Also on polymarket at 70¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
If Sabrina Carpenter attended Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTAYLORSWIFTWEDDINGATTEND-28DEC31-SAB yes 100