Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 2 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will J.D. Vance cast exactly 2 tie-breaking vote in the Senate in 2026?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 2, 2027. This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $308 open interest, making the 469.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading due to thin order books.
Analysis
This market shows extremely illiquid conditions with zero 24-hour volume and only $308 open interest, making the 469.6% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading due to thin order books. The 22¢ price implies a 22% probability that Vance casts exactly two tie-breaking votes in 2026, which requires both sufficient Senate deadlock and precise vote alignment—a narrow outcome compared to broader tie-vote markets. With 260 days to expiry and a wide 7¢ spread, this contract carries significant execution risk and may be difficult to exit at quoted prices.
Resolution rules
If the Vice President breaks exactly 2 ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVPBREAKS-26-2 yes 100