3 · Will J.D. Vance cast exactly
3 is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 9 inside Will J.D. Vance cast exactly.
Price history
25¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the Vice President breaks exactly 3 ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
3
Rank
#2 of 9
Leader
2 26¢
Range
2¢-26¢
Family volume
$613
Identifier
KXVPBREAKS-26-3
Jul 13, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 56m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$78
Family rank
#2 of 9
9 outcomes · Will J.D. Vance cast exactly
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Family volume
$613
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Vice President breaks exactly 3 ties in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 2, 2027
Identifier
KXVPBREAKS-26-3
Event family
Will J.D. Vance cast exactly.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$613
Outcomes
9
Highest price
2 26¢
Current share
0%
2
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-2
3
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-3
4
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-4
1
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-1
5
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-5
6
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-6
7
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-7
8
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-8
9
kalshi · KXVPBREAKS-26-9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.