Joe Giudice · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Joe Giudice is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
18¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Joe Giudice has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Joe Giudice
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump Jr. 57¢
Range
9¢-57¢
Family volume
$281
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JGIU
Aug 1, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$358
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$281
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Joe Giudice has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JGIU
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$281
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump Jr. 57¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
JD Vance
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JVAN
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Sam Bankman-Fried
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SBF
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Pete Rose
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PROS
Do Kwon
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DKWO
Joe Giudice
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JGIU
Brian Cole Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Daniel Hale
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Alex Mashinsky
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
DeAndre Way
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DWAY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.