Will Pam Bondi be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Pam Bondi be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes side offers an extreme 1267% implied yield on a 15% probability, reflecting severe illiquidity with only $5,945 open interest and minimal $32.65 daily volume—typical of low-conviction niche markets where small positions create outsized payoff ratios.
Analysis
The Yes side offers an extreme 1267% implied yield on a 15% probability, reflecting severe illiquidity with only $5,945 open interest and minimal $32.65 daily volume—typical of low-conviction niche markets where small positions create outsized payoff ratios. The 4¢ spread and neutral regime mask underlying volatility (1059% realized, 3.19 vol ratio), suggesting price discovery is poor despite steady information arrival at 1.2 events per hour. With 259 days to expiry and a 9 cliff risk index, this market is vulnerable to sudden repricing around major political or legal developments involving Bondi.
Resolution rules
If Pam Bondi is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-PBON yes 100