SimpleFunctions

Jose Berrios · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05

Jose Berrios is priced at 32¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05.

Price history

32¢ current

+23¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 18, 2026Jul 11, 2026

Contract brief

If Jose Berrios is traded before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Jose Berrios

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

Aroldis Chapman 82¢

Range

3¢-82¢

Family volume

$2K

Identifier

KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JBER

Jul 12, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Implied probability

32¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 12, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 24m ago

Bid

31¢

Ask

32¢

Spread

Reported volume

$340

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05

Closes

Aug 5, 2026

Family volume

$2K

Orderbook snapshot

31 / 32¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
31¢28
27¢25
25¢25
22¢25
2¢584
AskSize
32¢75
34¢25
35¢115
55¢25
70¢50

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Jose Berrios is traded before Aug 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 5, 2026

Identifier

KXMLBTRADE-26AUG05-JBER

SF Signal
SF Index
3340.46
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

3452.0%

IY (No)

696.8%

Adj IY

3340%

CRI

2

RV

755%

VR

1.01

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

3452.0%
696.8%
Adj IY
3340%
2
RV
755%
VR
1.01
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
6.0%
LAS
0.03

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.