Joseph Maldonado · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Joseph Maldonado is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
Price history
21¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Joseph Maldonado has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Joseph Maldonado
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Donald Trump 57¢
Range
6¢-57¢
Family volume
$287
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JMAL
Aug 8, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$678
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Family volume
$287
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Joseph Maldonado has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
Identifier
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JMAL
Event family
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$287
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Donald Trump 57¢
Current share
0%
Donald Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJT
Donald Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Barron Trump
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BAR
Pete Hegseth
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-PHEG
Sean Combs
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-SCOM
Bill Hwang
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BHWA
Ghislaine Maxwell
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-GMAX
Eric Adams
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-EADA
Derek Chauvin
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DCHA
Bob Menendez
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BMEN
Do Kwon
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DKWO
Joseph Maldonado
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-JMAL
Brian Cole Jr.
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-BCJ
Daniel Hale
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DHAL
Alex Mashinsky
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-AMAS
DeAndre Way
kalshi · KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DWAY
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.