Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will Lee Jun-seok be arrested before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely low 1% probability of arrest, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 2676% implied yield, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders view arrest as effectively impossible rather than merely unlikely.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 1% probability of arrest, yet the Yes position offers a staggering 2676% implied yield, suggesting significant mispricing or that traders view arrest as effectively impossible rather than merely unlikely. With zero 24-hour volume, $531 open interest, and an 8¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making these theoretical yields potentially illusory—any actual trade could move prices substantially. The recent price movement from 4¢ to 5¢ over seven days and the elevated 19 Cliff Risk Index warrant caution, as they indicate potential volatility or model instability in this thin market.
Resolution rules
If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXARREST-27JAN-LJUN yes 100