Lil Nas X · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01
Lil Nas X is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 99¢ ask, 15¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01.
Price history
83¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Lil Nas X releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lil Nas X
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Ariana Grande 96¢
Range
70¢-96¢
Family volume
$258
Identifier
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-NAS
May 26, 2026, 4:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
84¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
15¢
24h volume
$11
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Family volume
$258
Orderbook snapshot
84 / 99¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lil Nas X releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Identifier
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-NAS
Event family
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$258
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Ariana Grande 96¢
Current share
4%
Ariana Grande
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-ARI
Bad Bunny
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BAD
Camilo
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-CAM
Olivia Dean
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-OLI
Big Sean
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BIG
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BIL
21 Savage
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-21S
Doja Cat
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-DOJ
Beyoncé
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BEY
Addison Rae
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-ADD
Benson Boone
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BEN
Lil Nas X
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-NAS
PinkPantheress
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-PIN
Eminem
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-EMI
Lil Uzi Vert
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-UZI
Rihanna
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-RIH
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.