Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album before Oct 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread and 168 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in the outcome.

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74¢mid
Bid/Ask 70/78¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Oct 1, 2026·163d remaining
KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-OCT01-26
7-day price6 snapshots · 3 regime
71¢70¢ current
Apr 1470¢Apr 15

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 8¢ spread and 168 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in the outcome. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of a Lil Uzi Vert album release, yet the implied yield on the "No" side reaches 508.2%, indicating the pricing is likely distorted by the lack of liquidity rather than genuine conviction. The recent 1¢ price decline over seven days and low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggest this market lacks the activity needed for reliable price discovery.

Resolution rules

If Lil Uzi Vert releases a new album before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 96.2%
IY (No) 523.9%
Adj IY 262%
CRI 2
Overround 1.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)96.2%
IY (No)523.9%
Adj IY262%
CRI2
Overround1.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
8¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:40:42 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXALBUMRELEASEDATEUZI-OCT01-26 yes 100

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