What is the current probability for "Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 3, 2027. 256 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1443.8% and 14.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 3, 2027. LSU's 12¢ price reflects a significant underdog positioning with an exceptionally high implied yield of 1,131% on the Yes side, suggesting either substantial mispricing or market skepticism about their 2026 championship prospects.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 9/13¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1,182.16·Closes Jan 3, 2027·256d remaining

KXNCAAFSEC-26-LSU

Analysis

5d ago

LSU's 12¢ price reflects a significant underdog positioning with an exceptionally high implied yield of 1,131% on the Yes side, suggesting either substantial mispricing or market skepticism about their 2026 championship prospects. The thin liquidity ($1,183 open interest, $166 daily volume) and wide 4¢ spread create execution challenges, though the 261-day timeframe provides ample opportunity for fundamental shifts in team composition and conference dynamics. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 warrants caution, as late-stage volatility could materially impact positions near resolution.

Resolution rules

If LSU wins the 2026 College Football SEC Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1443.8%

IY (No) 14.1%

Adj IY 722%

CRI 10

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1443.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	14.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	722%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	10	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 1:33:21 PM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:23:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAAFSEC-26-LSU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →