Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$942
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
174 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship?: Alabama
KXNCAAFSEC-26-ALA
Cluster 2
Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship
Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?: LSU
KXNCAAFSEC-26-LSU
Cluster 3
Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship?: Georgia
KXNCAAFSEC-26-UGA
Cluster 4
Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFSEC-26-MISS
Cluster 5
Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFSEC-26-OKLA
Cluster 6
Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship?: Tennessee
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TENN
Cluster 7
Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TEX
Cluster 8
Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TXAM
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets assess Vanderbilt has a 10% chance of winning the SEC Championship in 2026. Vanderbilt would need to perform significantly better than their recent historical performance, as they have not won an SEC title since 1982 and typically finish near the bottom of the conference. The current estimate reflects their roster quality, coaching staff, and strength-of-schedule relative to established powerhouses like Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be the actual 2026 college football season, with early-season performance against conference opponents in September and October providing the clearest signal of championship viability. Additionally, any significant changes to their roster through recruiting or transfers could shift this probability before the season begins.
- ›Vanderbilt has finished in the SEC's bottom tier in most recent seasons, with limited recent championship infrastructure compared to conference competitors
- ›Texas trades at 11% for the national championship while Vanderbilt trades at 10% for just the SEC championship, suggesting a substantial talent gap between them
- ›The 2026 football season has not yet begun, meaning this probability is based entirely on pre-season roster evaluation and coaching staff assessments
- ›Conference expansion and playoff format changes may affect the competitive landscape and path to championship for all SEC teams
- ›Historical track record shows SEC championships typically go to programs with established recruiting pipelines and sustained winning records
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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