Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship?: Georgia
KXNCAAFSEC-26-UGA
Cluster 2
Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship?: Alabama
KXNCAAFSEC-26-ALA
Cluster 3
Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship
Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship?: LSU
KXNCAAFSEC-26-LSU
Cluster 4
Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship?: Ole Miss
KXNCAAFSEC-26-MISS
Cluster 5
Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas A&M
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TXAM
Cluster 6
Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship?: Texas
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TEX
Cluster 7
Will Florida win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Florida win the College Football SEC Championship?: Florida
KXNCAAFSEC-26-FLA
Cluster 8
Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship?: Oklahoma
KXNCAAFSEC-26-OKLA
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship
Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship?: Tennessee
KXNCAAFSEC-26-TENN
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Vanderbilt will win the SEC Championship during the 2026 college football season. The relatively low odds align with Vanderbilt's historical position as a mid-tier SEC program, competing against stronger regional rivals like Texas A&M (9¢), Ole Miss (5¢), and others with more recent championship pedigree. The probability would likely shift based on Vanderbilt's performance during the regular season, particularly their strength of schedule and win-loss record through October and November. The SEC Championship Game, typically held in early December, represents the key event that will definitively resolve this contract. Market pricing suggests investors view multiple other programs as more credible contenders, with significant fragmentation across competing teams indicating genuine uncertainty about the favorite.
- ›Vanderbilt's 2026 regular season win-loss record against conference opponents compared to historical performance
- ›Strength and composition of Vanderbilt's non-conference schedule and results through October
- ›Performance of competing SEC programs, particularly those currently priced higher (Texas A&M at 9¢, Ole Miss at 5¢)
- ›Vanderbilt's quarterback performance, injury status of key offensive/defensive personnel, and depth chart changes
- ›Head-to-head matchups against other SEC contenders in November, which typically determine championship game qualification
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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