SimpleFunctions
9 source contracts·Kalshi 9·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 3, 2027 · 132d

Will Vanderbilt win the College Football SEC Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

10%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

10%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2K

9 contracts

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

132 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 22% (21 days, 21 points)Aggregate: 22% on 2026-08-23
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 21d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Georgia win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$665

Cluster 2

Will Alabama win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$451

Cluster 3

Will LSU win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$375

Cluster 4

Will Ole Miss win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$156

Cluster 5

Will Texas A&M win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$143

Cluster 6

Will Texas win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$39

Cluster 7

Will Florida win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Oklahoma win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Tennessee win the College Football SEC Championship

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 10% probability reflects market expectations that Vanderbilt will win the SEC Championship during the 2026 college football season. The relatively low odds align with Vanderbilt's historical position as a mid-tier SEC program, competing against stronger regional rivals like Texas A&M (9¢), Ole Miss (5¢), and others with more recent championship pedigree. The probability would likely shift based on Vanderbilt's performance during the regular season, particularly their strength of schedule and win-loss record through October and November. The SEC Championship Game, typically held in early December, represents the key event that will definitively resolve this contract. Market pricing suggests investors view multiple other programs as more credible contenders, with significant fragmentation across competing teams indicating genuine uncertainty about the favorite.

  • Vanderbilt's 2026 regular season win-loss record against conference opponents compared to historical performance
  • Strength and composition of Vanderbilt's non-conference schedule and results through October
  • Performance of competing SEC programs, particularly those currently priced higher (Texas A&M at 9¢, Ole Miss at 5¢)
  • Vanderbilt's quarterback performance, injury status of key offensive/defensive personnel, and depth chart changes
  • Head-to-head matchups against other SEC contenders in November, which typically determine championship game qualification

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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