SimpleFunctions

Texas · KXNCAAFSEC-26

Texas is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 16 inside KXNCAAFSEC-26.

Price history

20¢ current

+1¢
15¢20¢
Jun 26, 2026Jun 29, 2026

Contract brief

If Texas wins the 2026 College Football SEC Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Texas

Rank

#2 of 16

Leader

Georgia 22¢

Range

1¢-22¢

Family volume

$261

Identifier

KXNCAAFSEC-26-TEX

Jul 10, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Implied probability

20¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 10, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 4m ago

Bid

20¢

Ask

21¢

Spread

24h volume

$2

Family rank

#2 of 16

16 outcomes · KXNCAAFSEC-26

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

Family volume

$261

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 21¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
20¢1.5K
19¢500
18¢100
15¢65
10¢30
AskSize
21¢572
23¢602
24¢169
25¢22K
32¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Texas wins the 2026 College Football SEC Championship Game, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

Identifier

KXNCAAFSEC-26-TEX

SF Signal
SF Index
414.30
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

828.6%

IY (No)

51.8%

Adj IY

414%

CRI

4

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

828.6%
51.8%
Adj IY
414%
4
Overround
-0.1%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.