SimpleFunctions

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is priced at 43¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2.

Price history

43¢ current

+22¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 28, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Rank

#2 of 5

Leader

Flávio Bolsonaro 50¢

Range

2¢-50¢

Family volume

$16

Identifier

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-LSIL

May 27, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

43¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

11¢

Ask

18¢

Spread

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#2 of 5

5 outcomes · KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2

Closes

Oct 4, 2027

Family volume

$16

Orderbook snapshot

11 / 18¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
11¢4
10¢200
5¢169
3¢323
2¢928
AskSize
18¢5
19¢1
20¢200
27¢40
58¢81

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 4, 2027

Identifier

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-LSIL

SF Signal
SF Index
108.39
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on polymarket at 11¢, +32¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$16

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Flávio Bolsonaro 50¢

Current share

0%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

596.2%

IY (No)

9.1%

Adj IY

108%

CRI

8

Overround

-0.3%

LAS

0.64

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

596.2%
9.1%
Adj IY
108%
8
Overround
-0.3%
LAS
0.64

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.