SimpleFunctions

Renan Santos · KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2

Renan Santos is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2.

Price history

13¢ current

+5¢
0¢10¢
May 14, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Renan Santos finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Renan Santos

Rank

#4 of 5

Leader

Flávio Bolsonaro 50¢

Range

2¢-50¢

Family volume

$11

Identifier

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RSAN

May 27, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 13m ago

Bid

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$7

Family rank

#4 of 5

5 outcomes · KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2

Closes

Oct 4, 2027

Family volume

$11

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 13¢

Kalshi
7¢ spread
BidSize
100¢494
6¢5
5¢17
4¢200
2¢167
AskSize
13¢5
14¢200
20¢41
24¢1
63¢130

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Renan Santos finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Oct 4, 2027

Identifier

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2-RSAN

SF Signal
SF Index
1155.48
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on polymarket at 19¢, -6¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

KXBRPRESIDENT2-BRPRES26-2.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$11

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Flávio Bolsonaro 50¢

Current share

67%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1155.5%

IY (No)

4.7%

Adj IY

1155%

CRI

16

RV

1984%

VR

6.40

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1155.5%
4.7%
Adj IY
1155%
16
RV
1984%
VR
6.40
IAR
1.8/h
Overround
-0.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.