Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
495 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 2
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 3
Will Renan Santos finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 4
Will Romeu Zema finish 2nd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Analysis
This market estimates a 27% probability that Flávio Bolsonaro finishes second in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round, behind the frontrunner. The probability reflects uncertainty about candidate positioning in what could be a competitive three-way or four-way race. Key drivers include Bolsonaro family political standing post-2022, the strength of alternative right-wing candidates like Romeu Zema, and how Lula's popularity evolves in office. The election occurs in October 2026, but significant shifts could occur during the campaign period through polling trends and political consolidation around candidates. Markets currently assign only 6% probability to Zema finishing second and 21% to Lula, suggesting Flávio is viewed as a stronger second-place contender than other opposition figures by traders, though still unlikely to outpace the expected frontrunner.
- ›Flávio Bolsonaro's current legal challenges and conviction status, which directly affect his eligibility and public viability as a candidate
- ›Lula administration approval ratings and economic conditions in Brazil through mid-2026, which influence whether an incumbent or opposition candidate leads the first round
- ›Whether the right-wing vote consolidates around Bolsonaro family candidates or fragments among alternatives like Zema or other center-right figures
- ›October 2026 election date and primary/pre-campaign polling data released in 2026, which will reveal actual candidate strength and voter preference distribution
- ›International and domestic political events between now and October 2026 that could shift momentum toward or away from Bolsonaro family political viability
What moved the line
- May 23Flávio Bolsonaro↓18pp54→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Flávio Bolsonaro↑10pp40→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↓8pp15→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 26Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva↑6pp4→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 25Flávio Bolsonaro↑4pp36→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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