OpenAI · KXTOPAI-27
OpenAI is priced at 33¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 32¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 12 inside KXTOPAI-27.
Price history
33¢ current
−15¢Contract brief
If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
OpenAI
Rank
#1 of 12
Leader
OpenAI 32¢
Range
3¢-32¢
Family volume
$699
Identifier
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
Jun 26, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
32¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$452
Family rank
#1 of 12
12 outcomes · KXTOPAI-27
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$699
Orderbook snapshot
32 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
Event family
KXTOPAI-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$699
Outcomes
12
Highest price
OpenAI 32¢
Current share
65%
OpenAI
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
xAI
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-XAI
Meta
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-META
Alibaba
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ALIB
Deepseek
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-DEPP
Nvidia
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-NVID
Baidu
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BAID
ByteDance
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BYTE
Mistral
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MIST
Moonshot AI
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MOON
Z.ai
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ZAI
01A1
kalshi · KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-01A1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 33% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.