Will Mistral have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
11 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
187 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: OpenAI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
Cluster 2
Will Z.ai have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Z.ai have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Z.ai
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ZAI
Cluster 3
Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Meta
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-META
Cluster 4
Will Moonshot AI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Moonshot AI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Moonshot AI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MOON
Cluster 5
Will Deepseek have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Deepseek have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Deepseek
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-DEPP
Cluster 6
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Alibaba
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ALIB
Cluster 7
Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: xAI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-XAI
Cluster 8
Will Nvidia have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Nvidia have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Nvidia
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-NVID
Cluster 9
Will Mistral have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Mistral have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Mistral
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-MIST
Cluster 10
Will Baidu have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Baidu have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Baidu
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BAID
Cluster 11
Will ByteDance have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will ByteDance have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: ByteDance
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-BYTE
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Mistral will produce a top-ranked AI model by the end of 2026, currently estimated at 12% probability. The low odds reflect that Mistral faces intense competition from well-capitalized incumbents like OpenAI, xAI, and DeepSeek, all trading at significantly higher probabilities. Mistral's trajectory matters because it tests whether a European AI startup can compete with larger, better-funded rivals in a rapidly consolidating market. The company would need to release a model that achieves breakthrough performance on standard benchmarks within the next eight months. Key uncertainty drivers include Mistral's actual technical capabilities relative to competitors, access to sufficient compute resources, and how evaluation metrics are defined. Near-term benchmark releases and model announcements through mid-2026 will provide clearer signals about feasibility.
- ›Mistral's current model rankings on established benchmarks like MMLU, GSM8K, and other standardized tests relative to OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI offerings
- ›Capital constraints and inference capacity compared to competitors with greater funding and cloud infrastructure access
- ›Specific timeline and technical specifications for Mistral's planned model releases between May and December 2026
- ›Definition and acceptance of what constitutes a 'top-ranked' model in market consensus—whether top-5, top-3, or top performer
- ›Mistral's historical pace of model iteration and performance improvements versus the rapid benchmark advances from competitors
What moved the line
- Jun 25OpenAI↓3pp35→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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