Will Mistral have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: OpenAI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-OPEN
Cluster 2
Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Meta
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-META
Cluster 3
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Alibaba
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-ALIB
Cluster 4
Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: xAI
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-XAI
Cluster 5
Will Nvidia have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Nvidia have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Nvidia
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-NVID
Cluster 6
Will Deepseek have a top-ranked AI model before 2027
Will Deepseek have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?: Deepseek
KXTOPAI-27-JAN01-DEPP
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that Mistral will develop a model ranked among the top performers globally by end-2026. At 11%, the market suggests Mistral faces significant hurdles compared to better-capitalized competitors like OpenAI (35%) and xAI (17%). The current assessment reflects Mistral's resource constraints relative to incumbents and the rapid consolidation of AI capabilities among larger labs. Key factors driving this level include Mistral's access to funding and compute, the benchmark methodology used to rank models (which may favor certain architectures or training approaches), and whether any new model release reaches sufficient capability thresholds before year-end. The main catalyst for this market will be major benchmark releases in late 2026, particularly comprehensive evaluations like MMLU, ARC, or proprietary leaderboards where model rankings become publicly visible. Performance of Mistral's recent releases and any announced major model drops between now and December 2026 will directly inform belief updates.
- ›Mistral's compute allocation and funding trajectory relative to OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI through late 2026
- ›Definition and methodology of 'top-ranked' — which specific benchmarks (MMLU, ARC, Chatbot Arena, others) determine winners
- ›Timeline of Mistral's announced model releases: whether any major new model ships before end-2026
- ›Current capability gaps: how Mistral's latest models (as of August 2026) compare numerically on standard benchmarks to leading alternatives
- ›Aggregate market probability for competitors: OpenAI at 35% and xAI at 17% suggest concentrated belief in fewer winners
What moved the line
- Sep 18OpenAI↓7pp30→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17OpenAI↓4pp34→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17xAI↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in technology
- How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?last 70% · 2d
- Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Aug 21, 2026last 96% · 9d
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026last 96% · 13d
- Will OpenAI release Astra before Aug 21, 2026last 97% · 13d
- OpenAI market share this weeklast 93% · 38d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.