Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

3¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $301·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-RDEV

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $301 open interest, making the 3¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 6259% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny contract value rather than genuine edge, and the 4¢ spread is prohibitively wide relative to the 3¢ price itself. The price has tripled from 1¢ to 3¢ over seven days with minimal volume, suggesting the movement may be driven by thin order book dynamics rather than fundamental reassessment of Devers' RBI-leading probability.

Resolution rules

If Rafael Devers leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6278.4%

IY (No) 6.0%

Adj IY 3139%

CRI 32

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6278.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:43:01 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-RDEV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →