SimpleFunctions

ROSALÍA · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

ROSALÍA is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 8¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Price history

4¢ current

0¢5¢
Jul 16, 2026Jul 16, 2026

Contract brief

If ROSALÍA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

ROSALÍA

Rank

#14 of 16

Leader

Future 99¢

Range

1¢-99¢

Family volume

$5K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ROS

Jul 16, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 51m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 16, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 51m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$1K

Family rank

#14 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$5K

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 8¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
100¢464
4¢912
AskSize
8¢5
10¢25
12¢500
13¢75
22¢450

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ROSALÍA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ROS

SF Signal
SF Index
0.00
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

5355.3%

IY (No)

9.3%

Adj IY

0%

CRI

24

Overround

10.5%

LAS

1.00

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

5355.3%
9.3%
Adj IY
0%
24
Overround
10.5%
LAS
1.00

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.