Sarah Snook · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14
Sarah Snook is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 34¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14.
Price history
34¢ current
+15¢Contract brief
If Sarah Snook has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Sarah Snook
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Carey Mulligan 33¢
Range
3¢-33¢
Family volume
$802
Identifier
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAR
Jul 13, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$113
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Family volume
$802
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 34¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Sarah Snook has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
Identifier
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAR
Event family
KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$802
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Carey Mulligan 33¢
Current share
14%
Carey Mulligan
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-CARE
Sarah Snook
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAR
Sarah Pidgeon
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SARA
Sally Field
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-SAL
Tie
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-TIE
Claire Danes
kalshi · KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-CLA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
cultural
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 34% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.