Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Tie win Movie/Limited Actress at the Emmy Awards?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing September 14, 2027. This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes.
Analysis
This market is severely illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for valuation purposes. The extreme 1699% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the micro-scale nature of the position rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. With 516 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative position on a long-shot candidate rather than an actively traded market.
Resolution rules
If Tie has won Outstanding Lead Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the 78th Emmy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMMYLIMITEDACTR-26SEP14-TIE yes 100