Will Taylor Fritz win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

4¢

Bid/Ask 4/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $1,262·Closes Dec 31, 2026·256d remaining

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The 4¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Fritz to win a Grand Slam within 256 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 3422% implied yield—a massive risk-reward asymmetry typical of long-shot betting markets. With only $1,262 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained, meaning any position entry could face slippage; the 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the illiquidity. The Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests moderate binary risk, though the neutral regime and recent price stability (3¢ to 4¢) indicate the market hasn't repriced on new information about Fritz's form or injury status.

Resolution rules

If Taylor Fritz wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3422.4%

IY (No) 5.9%

Adj IY 1711%

CRI 24

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3422.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1711%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:14:29 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:18 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-TFRI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →