SimpleFunctions

Texas Tech win at least 10 games this season

10+ wins is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 8 inside Will Texas Tech win at least.

Price history

76¢ current

+70¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢
Jun 24, 2026Jul 21, 2026

Contract brief

If the Texas Tech college football team has at least 10 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

10+ wins

Rank

#3 of 8

Leader

5+ wins 96¢

Range

23¢-96¢

Family volume

$247

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26TTU-10

Jul 24, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

76¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 24, 2026, 11:08 AM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

76¢

Ask

86¢

Spread

10¢

Reported volume

$148

Family rank

#3 of 8

8 outcomes · Will Texas Tech win at least

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Family volume

$247

Orderbook snapshot

76 / 86¢

Kalshi
10¢ spread
BidSize
76¢63
63¢54
62¢125
61¢30
59¢366
AskSize
86¢5
87¢10
90¢25
94¢100
97¢51

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Texas Tech college football team has at least 10 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26TTU-10

SF Signal
SF Index
351.76
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

77.3%

IY (No)

774.9%

Adj IY

352%

CRI

3

Overround

3.7%

LAS

0.09

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

77.3%
774.9%
Adj IY
352%
3
Overround
3.7%
LAS
0.09

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.