SimpleFunctions

Texas Tech win at least 11 games this season

11+ wins is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 62¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 8 inside Will Texas Tech win at least.

Price history

61¢ current

+9¢
50¢60¢
Jun 19, 2026Jul 2, 2026

Contract brief

If the Texas Tech college football team has at least 11 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

11+ wins

Rank

#7 of 8

Leader

5+ wins 94¢

Range

22¢-94¢

Family volume

$500

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26TTU-11

Jul 19, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

61¢
Latest venue quote
Jul 19, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

60¢

Ask

62¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#7 of 8

8 outcomes · Will Texas Tech win at least

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Family volume

$500

Orderbook snapshot

60 / 62¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
60¢200
53¢45
52¢290
51¢14
50¢3.6K
AskSize
62¢500
63¢1.0K
65¢500
74¢25
78¢100

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Texas Tech college football team has at least 11 wins in the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 20, 2026

Identifier

KXNCAAFWINS-26TTU-11

SF Signal
SF Index
177.33
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

157.6%

IY (No)

354.7%

Adj IY

177%

CRI

2

Overround

5.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

157.6%
354.7%
Adj IY
177%
2
Overround
5.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.