Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year is priced at 26¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 46¢ ask, 38¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
−30¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes H.R. 7126 (119th) — “To establish a Strategic Resilience Reserve of the United States…” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$51
Identifier
0x2d729343...e23b
Jun 26, 2026, 3:34 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
46¢
Spread
38¢
Reported volume
$51
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$51
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 46¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes H.R. 7126 (119th) — “To establish a Strategic Resilience Reserve of the United States…” Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2d729343…e23b
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$51
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the Critical-minerals stockpile become law this year 26¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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