Democratic party hold more than 56 Senate seats in the 121st Congress
Above 56 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 14 inside Will the Democratic party hold.
Price history
9¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the Democratic party has above 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 56
Rank
#3 of 14
Leader
Below 45 8¢
Range
1¢-8¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXDSENATESEATS-29-A56
Oct 10, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 23h ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$213
Family rank
#3 of 14
14 outcomes · Will the Democratic party hold
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic party has above 56 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Feb 1, 2029
Identifier
KXDSENATESEATS-29-A56
Event family
Will the Democratic party hold.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Below 45 8¢
Current share
—
Below 45
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-B45
51
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E51
Above 56
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-A56
52
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E52
54
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E54
56
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E56
50
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E50
45
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E45
53
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E53
55
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E55
48
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E48
49
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E49
46
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E46
47
kalshi · KXDSENATESEATS-29-E47
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.