Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Democratic party win 226-229 House seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This contract prices an extremely narrow outcome (226-229 seats, just 4 seats) at only 7¢, implying Democrats capture this precise band in just 1 in 14 scenarios—a notably pessimistic read given historical seat distributions typically span 20+ seat ranges.
Analysis
This contract prices an extremely narrow outcome (226-229 seats, just 4 seats) at only 7¢, implying Democrats capture this precise band in just 1 in 14 scenarios—a notably pessimistic read given historical seat distributions typically span 20+ seat ranges. The asymmetric implied yield (1,968% for Yes vs. 8% for No) reflects the long-shot nature, though the modest $11.3K open interest and thin $141 daily volume suggest limited conviction and liquidity risk for larger positions. With 291 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears underpricing tail risk; similar narrow-band congressional seat markets on Kalshi typically trade 12-15¢ when accounting for polling uncertainty.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic party has between 226-229 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHOUSESEATS-27-228 yes 100