Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will the Democratic party win 238-241 House seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1130% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow Democratic seat range given historical seat distributions typically cluster around 217-218 seats for the minority party.
Analysis
This market displays extreme asymmetry with a 1130% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 14% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues a narrow Democratic seat range given historical seat distributions typically cluster around 217-218 seats for the minority party. The unusually high cliff risk index of 9 and realized volatility of 940% indicate sharp price swings despite minimal liquidity ($8,889.95 open interest, $392.48 daily volume), making this a thin market vulnerable to large moves from modest order flow. With 291 days to expiry and a recent price rise from 8¢ to 10¢ over seven days, the market may be repricing as new polling or political developments emerge, though the extremely tight seat range (238-241) makes this outcome genuinely unlikely under most scenarios.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic party has between 238-241 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHOUSESEATS-27-240 yes 100