Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 771.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 20.4% on the No side, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues a Democratic gain of 15-18 seats from their current position.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 771.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 20.4% on the No side, suggesting the 15¢ price significantly undervalues a Democratic gain of 15-18 seats from their current position. The unusually high yield combined with modest $332 daily volume and tight $12.5k open interest indicates low liquidity that could amplify price swings, particularly as we approach the February 2027 resolution date with 291 days remaining. The recent price climb from 12¢ to 14¢ over seven days and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 6 warrant caution, as thin order books could produce sharp moves if new information emerges about House composition expectations.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDHOUSESEATS-27-248 yes 100