Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson · GOVPARTYMI-26
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson is priced at 87¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside GOVPARTYMI-26.
Price history
87¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Michigan pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson 86¢
Range
1¢-86¢
Family volume
$26
Identifier
GOVPARTYMI-26-D
Aug 22, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$6
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · GOVPARTYMI-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$26
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Michigan pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
GOVPARTYMI-26-D
Event family
GOVPARTYMI-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$26
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson 86¢
Current share
68%
Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Michigan: Jocelyn Benson
kalshi · GOVPARTYMI-26-D
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Michigan: John James
kalshi · GOVPARTYMI-26-R
Will the Mike Duggan party win the governorship in Michigan: Mike Duggan
kalshi · GOVPARTYMI-26-MD
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.475
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.