Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 2 times at emergency meetings?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating a massive 4552.7% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pure illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario at 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating a massive 4552.7% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pure illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity. The 259-day timeframe to expiration and $13,744 open interest suggest this is a niche contract with minimal market depth, and the 1¢ spread indicates difficulty in execution. The extraordinarily high yield and neutral regime score (0.5) suggest this contract is essentially dormant—traders should be cautious about the reliability of the 3¢ price given the zero volume and potential for significant slippage if attempting to trade.
Resolution rules
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 2 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEMERCUTS-26-T2 yes 100