Highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch at least 60 in Jul 2026
At least 60 is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.
Price history
14¢ current
−15¢Contract brief
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 60
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
At least 50 30¢
Range
1¢-30¢
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL60
Jul 8, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 60 in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Identifier
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL60
Event family
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
At least 50 30¢
Current share
27%
At least 50
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL50
At least 60
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL60
At least 70
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL70
At least 80
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL80
At least 90
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL90
At least 100
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUL31-AL100
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.