Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in June 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
7 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 70 in Aug 2026
Analysis
This market estimates whether the Strait of Hormuz will see at least 60 vessel transits in a single day during June 2026. The 37-cent contract price implies roughly 37% probability, reflecting uncertainty about transit volumes through one of the world's critical shipping chokepoints. Daily transit counts depend on global oil demand, shipping schedules, geopolitical tensions affecting routing decisions, and seasonal patterns. The metric is specifically measured by IMF PortWatch data, which provides objective daily counts. Resolution depends entirely on whether PortWatch records a single day in June 2026 with 60 or more transits. Comparable historical data on typical Hormuz transit volumes and any announced disruptions or policy changes affecting the corridor would inform whether 60 represents a routine day or an unusually high volume.
- ›Historical daily transit baseline: typical Hormuz traffic patterns and whether 60 transits represents normal, elevated, or peak volume for that corridor
- ›Geopolitical risk events: any announced tensions, sanctions, or security incidents affecting shipping routes or vessel behavior during June 2026
- ›Global oil demand and shipping activity: seasonal demand fluctuations and whether June 2026 corresponds to high or low shipping periods
- ›IMF PortWatch methodology and data reliability: verification that the measurement criteria are consistent and that daily counts are publicly available and verifiable
- ›Alternative routing availability: whether economic or political factors would incentivize vessels to avoid the Strait, reducing daily call volumes below 60
What moved the line
- Aug 22At least 70↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
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This page aggregates 1 contract (5% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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