Highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch at least 40 in June 2026
At least 40 is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 65¢ bid, 66¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.
Price history
65¢ current
+31¢Contract brief
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 40 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 40
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
At least 30 81¢
Range
3¢-81¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL40
Jun 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
65¢
Ask
66¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
65 / 66¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 40 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
Identifier
KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL40
Event family
Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
At least 30 81¢
Current share
36%
At least 30
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30
At least 40
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL40
At least 50
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL50
At least 60
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL60
At least 80
kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 65% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.