SimpleFunctions

Highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch at least 80 in June 2026

At least 80 is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.

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Price history

3¢ current

−11¢
0¢25¢50¢
Jun 15, 2026Jun 23, 2026

Contract brief

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 80 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

At least 80

Rank

#5 of 5

Leader

At least 30 72¢

Range

3¢-72¢

Family volume

$20K

Identifier

KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL80

Jun 24, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Implied probability

3¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 24, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 19m ago

Bid

3¢

Ask

4¢

Spread

1¢

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#5 of 5

5 outcomes · Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least

Closes

Jul 7, 2026

Family volume

$20K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 4¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.3K
3¢3.5K
2¢1.0K
AskSize
4¢532
5¢217
6¢236
7¢500
8¢86

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is at least 80 in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 7, 2026

Identifier

KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL80

SF Signal
SF Index
86719.57
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$20K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

At least 30 72¢

Current share

13%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

At least 30

kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL30

72¢
$2K$2K—

At least 40

kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL40

41¢
$10K$10K0.0

At least 50

kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL50

20¢
$1$1—

At least 60

kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL60

8¢
$5K$5K0.1

At least 80

kalshi · KXMAXSHIPSHORMUZ-26JUN30-AL80

3¢
$3K$3K—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

86719.6%

IY (No)

82.9%

Adj IY

86720%

CRI

32

RV

2115%

VR

0.91

Regime

neutral

Score

0.375

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
86719.6%
IY (No)
82.9%
Adj IY
86720%
CRI
32
RV
2115%
VR
0.91
IAR
0.3/h
EE
5.000
Overround
0.1%

Odds pages

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Browse odds

Will the highest daily number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be at least 60 in June 2026

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SimpleFunctions context

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Open index

Prediction Market Index

Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.

Market Screener

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Event Probability API

Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.

Realtime Data API

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World State API

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Hedging Workflows

Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.