Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 22 percentage points?
This contract is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 4¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
9
Family volume
$0
Best sibling
Democrats, 1+ pts 94¢
Ticker
KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P22
Market snapshot
Democrats, 22+ pts in market context.
This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least 22 percentage points?. The displayed quote is 16¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $562. In the Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least family, this outcome ranks #8 of 9 by current quote across 9 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC.
Outcome
Democrats, 22+ pts
Family rank
#8 of 9
Venue
Kalshi
Current quote
16¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Nov 3, 2027
Reported volume
$562
Family context
9 outcomes · Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least
Quote range
11¢-94¢
Family leader
Democrats, 1+ pts 94¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC · 10m ago
Venue identifier: KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P22. Family volume: —.
Price history
16¢ current
+14¢Orderbook snapshot
18 / 22¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota's 2nd District by 22 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P22
Event family
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Minnesota's 2nd District House election be at least.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Democrats, 1+ pts 94¢
Current share
—
Democrats, 22+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P22
Democrats, 1+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P1
Democrats, 4+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P4
Democrats, 7+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P7
Democrats, 10+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P10
Democrats, 13+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P13
Democrats, 16+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P16
Democrats, 19+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P19
Democrats, 25+ pts
kalshi · KXMIDTERMMOV-MN02D-P25
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.