Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Virginia be at least 9 percentage points
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Virginia be at least 9 percentage points is priced at 84¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 80¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
84¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Virginia be at least 9 percentage points
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-VASEND-P9
Sep 22, 2026, 12:19 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
80¢
Ask
88¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
80 / 88¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia by 9 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMIDTERMMOV-VASEND-P9
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the U.S. Senate election in Virginia be at least 9 percentage points 84¢
Current share
—
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Market Making on Polymarket: Why Maker Status Cuts Loss Probability by 36 Points — and Why Spreads Persist Anyway
Akey et al.'s most economically significant finding: moving from pure taker to pure maker status reduces the probability of losing money by ~36 percentage points on Polymarket. Resolution-spec risk is why cross-platform spreads persist at 1.5–4.5% and why even Susquehanna and Jump can't fully arb them.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 84% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.