3 · Will the next President confirm
3 is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Will the next President confirm.
Price history
9¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If 3 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
3
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
1 41¢
Range
1¢-41¢
Family volume
$695
Identifier
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-3
Jun 23, 2026, 7:05 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$26K
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the next President confirm
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$695
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 3 Supreme Court Justices are confirmed during the 2025-2029 presidential term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXNEWSCOTUSCONF-29JAN20-3
Event family
Will the next President confirm.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$695
Outcomes
5
Highest price
1 41¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.